Heatwaves and supply chains: what the food industry must do to safeguard its future

The 2025 growing season in the UK has been one of the toughest in memory. A spring drought – the driest since 1893 – left reservoir stocks in Yorkshire and the Pennines below 50 percent, with soil moisture at record lows. By July, the UK had logged nearly 1,200 hours of sunshine, 250 more than the average, with four major heatwaves.

The results of this extreme whether are sadly evident on the nation’s farms with potato, pea and salad growers in Lincolnshire reporting yield losses of up to 50 percent, while wheat and oats are maturing two weeks earlier than normal, cutting quality and quantity. On the consumer side, food and drink inflation is back up at 4.5 percent year-on-year, according to the Office for National Statistics.

But while farmers are on the front line, these shocks ripple quickly through processors, retailers and logistics networks. It is here – in the middle of the supply chain – that the food industry can act decisively.

The ‘missing middle’ in UK food resilience

Discussions relating to food supply often focus on farmers at one end or consumers at the other, overlooking the fact that processors, retailers, distributors and manufacturers are pivotal in creating resilience.

These businesses determine how risk is shared, how contracts are structured and whether investment is made in long-term solutions.

Three current weaknesses stand out:

• Contract rigidity: last-minute order cancellations remain common, forcing farmers to plough edible crops back into fields. Foodrise Farm Waste Report found that UK farmers lose millions each year due to cancelled contracts and strict supermarket specifications.
• Lack of buffer storage: the UK has no significant strategic reserves. In 2022, lettuce and salad shortages emerged within days when Spain and Morocco were hit by heatwaves, because UK retailers had no buffer stocks or alternative supply plans.
• Water and energy inefficiency: food processing plants account for about 11 percent of UK industrial water use. In hot summers, pressure on supply increases yet recycling and closed-loop cooling remain underused.

Industry-led solutions: concrete examples

The good news is that solutions do exist and some firms are already pioneering them. These include:

• Processing innovation: Nestlé’s UK operations have cut water use by 20 per cent in five years by installing closed-loop cooling systems at their York confectionery plant. This kind of investment is now essential, not optional.
• Retailer partnerships: Several retailers have implemented a “perfectly imperfect” range, accepting cosmetically irregular fruit and vegetables that would previously have been discarded. Expanding such schemes would reduce farm losses in drought years.
• Cold-chain investment: Dutch horticultural cooperatives have pooled resources into large-scale cold storage hubs, enabling producers to hold surplus supply during gluts and release it gradually. The UK currently lacks this cooperative infrastructure.
• Collaborative risk-sharing: Danish dairy cooperatives operate ‘margin-sharing’ models, where input cost fluctuations (such as feed or energy) are distributed across farmers, processors and retailers. UK retailers could adopt similar models to prevent all the risk falling on producers.

Stakeholder actions: where responsibility lies

To summarise the main areas ripe for improving resilience in the UK’s food supply, the following options are recommended:

Farmers

• Invest in precision irrigation and regenerative soil practices that boost water retention
• Collaborate in cooperatives to pool storage and distribution, improving bargaining power.

Processors and manufacturers

• Retrofit plants with water recycling systems and energy-efficient cooling
• Diversify input sourcing – for example, incorporate more pulses and grains that are less water-intensive
• Build long-term contracts with growers to lock in supply while sharing weather-related risks.

Retailers

• End order cancellations and expand acceptance of cosmetically imperfect produce; communicate the benefits of buying this produce to consumers
• Support local sourcing by guaranteeing volumes for UK growers
• Invest in shared storage and logistics infrastructure to create real buffers.

Government

• Support regional food hubs through targeted capital grants
• Introduce binding food waste reduction targets across supply chains
• Prioritise food system resilience in infrastructure planning –  treating it as part of national security.

The cost of inaction

Extreme weather is no longer rare. The UK has experienced four of its five hottest summers on record since 2018. Without action, recurring shocks could add billions to food bills annually, destabilise processors and retailers, and push more farmers out of business. For industry leaders, the choice is stark: adapt now through smarter contracts, investment and cooperation, or face escalating volatility that will erode consumer trust and margins alike.

Conclusion: time for industry leadership

Climate change is a permanent feature of the operating environment. Waiting for government policy is not enough. Processors, retailers and manufacturers have the market power and capital to redesign UK food supply chains to promote resilience rather than solely efficiency and profit.

This means moving from efficiency-at-all-costs to models that can absorb shocks through buffer storage, risk-sharing and smarter resource use. The firms that act first will not only protect themselves but also win consumer loyalty by showing they can keep food affordable and available in turbulent times.

Author biographies

Saakshi Kumar is currently conducting research on sustainability and the food supply chain under the guidance of Professor Manoj Dora.

Saakshi has received national recognition for academic excellence, including the Scholastic Gold Key Award with a national nomination.

 

Manoj Dora is Professor of Sustainable Production and Consumption at Anglia Ruskin University. His research focuses on sustainable food systems, supply chain resilience and climate adaptation.

He advises governments, industry and international organisations on embedding sustainability into operations and has published widely on food supply chain governance, circular economy and decarbonisation strategies.